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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 09:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BUF
62.0%
JAX
38.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • JAX defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • BUF crossing 5 time zone(s)
  • EJ Manuel (BUF): -0.001 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

BUF

Percy Harvin WR Out Not Injury Related
Seantrel Henderson T Out Concussion
John Miller G Out Not Injury Related
Tyrod Taylor QB Out Knee
Sammy Watkins WR Out Ankle
Karlos Williams RB Out Concussion
Kyle Williams DT Out Knee
Marquise Goodwin WR Out Ribs
Marcus Easley WR Questionable Shoulder
Corey Graham CB Probable Groin
LeSean McCoy RB Probable Hamstring

JAX

Marqise Lee WR Out Hamstring
James Sample S Doubtful Shoulder
Clay Harbor TE Questionable Abdomen
T.J. Yeldon RB Questionable Groin
Chris Clemons DE Probable Not Injury Related
Johnathan Cyprien S Probable Calf
Allen Hurns WR Probable Ankle
Sen'Derrick Marks DT Probable Knee
Jermey Parnell T Probable Shoulder
Allen Robinson WR Probable Shin
Julius Thomas TE Probable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 31
–
JAX 34

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:28 FG BUF (7:28) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 14:09 TD JAX (14:09) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-C.Graham]. BUF 3 – JAX 6
  • Q2 12:30 TD JAX (12:30) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel sacked at BUF 16 for -7 yards (22-A.Colvin). FUMBLES (22-A.Colvin) [22-A.Colvin], RECOVERED by JAX-91-C.Clemons at BUF 6. 91-C.Clemons for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – JAX 13
  • Q2 12:21 TD JAX (12:21) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass short right intended for 10-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 50-T.Smith at BUF 26. 50-T.Smith for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – JAX 20
  • Q2 08:34 TD JAX (8:34) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon left guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 3 – JAX 27
  • Q2 02:52 TD BUF (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep right to 10-R.Woods for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 9 – JAX 27
  • Q2 00:12 FG BUF (:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – JAX 27
  • Q4 14:52 FG BUF (14:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 16 – JAX 27
  • Q4 06:41 TD BUF (6:41) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass deep right to 81-M.Easley for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – JAX 27
  • Q4 05:34 TD BUF (5:34) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left intended for 15-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Graham at JAX 44. 20-C.Graham for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-55-J.Hughes, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 30 – JAX 27
  • Q4 02:25 TD JAX (2:25) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 88-A.Hurns for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 31 – JAX 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to JAX 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 17 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:14) 19-B.Anger punts 39 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-35-D.McCray.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (7:28) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to JAX 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:52) 19-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Moore to 50 for 18 yards (21-T.Gerhart).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%

    (:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (5:37) 21-T.Gerhart right tackle to BUF 1 for no gain (30-B.Rambo).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (14:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:35) 19-B.Anger punts 49 yards to BUF 31, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Moore to JAX 37 for 32 yards (19-B.Anger). PENALTY on BUF-58-R.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:07) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-D.Moore. PENALTY on JAX-41-N.Marshall, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 32.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 16 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 56 yards to JAX 3, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-81-M.Easley.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:22) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 41 yards to BUF 47, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-D.Moore.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:57) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass incomplete short left to 10-R.Woods (22-A.Colvin).