Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 84

Buffalo Bills 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(2:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to JAX 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.91 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model