4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 2-D.Carpenter 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model