Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(14:35) 19-B.Anger punts 49 yards to BUF 31, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-D.Moore to JAX 37 for 32 yards (19-B.Anger). PENALTY on BUF-58-R.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.17 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model