Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

(9:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 56 yards to JAX 3, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-81-M.Easley.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.95 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model