Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 78

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(11:07) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-D.Moore. PENALTY on JAX-41-N.Marshall, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.27 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model