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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 21-T.Gerhart right tackle to BUF 1 for no gain (30-B.Rambo).

The Three Options

GO +4.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.18 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 1, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model