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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.15 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model