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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to JAX 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model