Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- MIN offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- Teddy Bridgewater (MIN): -0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- MIN on 7 more days rest than KC
- KC offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- MIN defense: -0.017 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 6
KC
MIN
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:44 FG MIN (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. KC 0 – MIN 3
- Q2 04:46 TD MIN (4:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – MIN 9
- Q3 08:55 FG MIN (8:55) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. KC 0 – MIN 13
- Q4 13:15 FG KC (13:15) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – MIN 13
- Q4 08:55 TD KC (8:55) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 12-A.Wilson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – MIN 13
- Q4 04:51 FG MIN (4:51) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. KC 10 – MIN 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 98Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:51) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to 50, Center-41-J.Winchester. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at KC 44 for 6 yards (39-H.Abdullah). PENALTY on MIN-99-D.Hunter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 44.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%
(5:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:14) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to MIN 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 17%
(14:13) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 46 yards to KC 7, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-D.Thomas to KC 21 for 14 yards (35-M.Sherels).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 17 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(11:03) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to MIN 41, Center-41-J.Winchester. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 49 for 8 yards (57-D.Alexander).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 41%
(9:08) (Run formation) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to KC 39 for 3 yards (70-M.Devito).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EPp(convert) 70%
(2:43) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to MIN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:18) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to KC 41, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on KC-20-S.Nelson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 41.
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Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 56% p(FG) 31%
(1:03) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to MIN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.
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Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%
(11:25) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 19 yards to MIN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 27Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 78%
(8:55) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
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Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%
(4:34) 35-C.West up the middle to MIN 7 for no gain (73-S.Floyd).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 16 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:50) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to KC 33, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-D.Thomas to KC 43 for 10 yards (19-A.Thielen). Penalty on KC-84-D.Harris, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q4 KC 4th & 16 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 74%
(13:15) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 27 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%
(4:51) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 44 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%
(2:51) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.
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Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 68 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:04) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 12-A.Wilson. PENALTY on MIN-55-A.Barr, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
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