4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) (Run formation) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to KC 39 for 3 yards (70-M.Devito).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model