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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(13:15) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.03 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model