Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 86

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

(11:03) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to MIN 41, Center-41-J.Winchester. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 49 for 8 yards (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.30 EP
73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model