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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 6

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model