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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to MIN 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP