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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 19 yards to MIN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model