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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to MIN 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.49 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP