4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2015-10-18 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CHI
51.9%
DET
48.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): -0.076 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23
–
DET 22
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CHI

Ego Ferguson DE Doubtful Knee
Shea McClellin LB Doubtful Knee
Terrance Mitchell CB Doubtful Hamstring
Antrel Rolle S Doubtful Ankle
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Quadricep
Josh Bellamy WR Questionable Groin
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Hamstring
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Shoulder
Patrick Omameh G Questionable Ankle
Jay Ratliff DT Questionable Ankle
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Ankle
Will Sutton DE Questionable Elbow

DET

DeAndre Levy LB Out Hip
Haloti Ngata DT Out Calf
Eric Ebron TE Out Knee
Theo Riddick RB Questionable Groin
Joique Bell RB Questionable Ankle
James Ihedigbo S Questionable Quadricep
Jason Jones DE Probable Knee
Darius Slay CB Probable Hip
Darryl Tapp DE Probable Ankle
Larry Warford G Probable Ankle
Golden Tate WR Probable Hip
LaAdrian Waddle T Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 34
–
DET 37

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:35 TD DET (9:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 16-L.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 04:52 FG CHI (4:52) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DET 7
  • Q2 12:57 TD CHI (12:57) 98-M.Unrein reported in as eligible. 33-J.Langford left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DET 7
  • Q2 09:23 TD DET (9:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 83-T.Wright for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-L.Houston]. CHI 10 – DET 13
  • Q2 04:54 FG CHI (4:54) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 13 – DET 14
  • Q2 00:58 TD DET (:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Anderson at CHI 0. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – DET 20
  • Q3 05:17 FG CHI (5:17) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 16 – DET 21
  • Q3 01:10 FG DET (1:10) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 16 – DET 24
  • Q4 12:33 TD CHI (12:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-E.Ansah]. CHI 22 – DET 24
  • Q4 07:54 TD CHI (7:54) (Shotgun) 22-M.Forte up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 29 – DET 24
  • Q4 02:50 FG DET (2:50) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 31 – DET 27
  • Q4 00:25 TD DET (:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 81-C.Johnson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 31 – DET 33
  • Q4 00:04 FG CHI (:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 34 – DET 34
  • Q5 02:33 FG DET (2:33) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 34 – DET 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (4:52) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:53) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 33 for 4 yards (34-Z.Zenner; 95-B.Copeland).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (4:54) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:43) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to CHI 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 32 for 8 yards (50-T.Lewis).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 18, Center-43-T.Gafford. 13-T.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-11-J.Bellamy at DET 19. 11-J.Bellamy to DET 19 for no gain (13-T.Jones).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (5:17) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 89%

    (1:10) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:12) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DET 21, Center-43-T.Gafford. 10-C.Fuller MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-31-C.Prosinski at DET 21. 31-C.Prosinski, dead ball declared at DET 21 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:18) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-I.Abdul-Quddus. 42-I.Abdul-Quddus left end to CHI 32 for 30 yards (80-M.Mariani).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (2:50) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DET 34, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.