Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 57

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 18, Center-43-T.Gafford. 13-T.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-11-J.Bellamy at DET 19. 11-J.Bellamy to DET 19 for no gain (13-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.88 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model