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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 62

Detroit Lions 24 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(5:18) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-I.Abdul-Quddus. 42-I.Abdul-Quddus left end to CHI 32 for 30 yards (80-M.Mariani).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.65 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model