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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 9

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model