4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 74

Chicago Bears 31 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DET 34, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.51 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP