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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 61

Chicago Bears 16 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DET 21, Center-43-T.Gafford. 10-C.Fuller MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-31-C.Prosinski at DET 21. 31-C.Prosinski, dead ball declared at DET 21 for no gain. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.02 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 20, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model