Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 80

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 3

(2:53) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CHI 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 33 for 4 yards (34-Z.Zenner; 95-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model