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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 20

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model