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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 21

Detroit Lions 21 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.80 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP