CAR @ SEA — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera

Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll

Sunday 2015-10-18 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CAR

52.6%

SEA

47.4%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

SEA defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
CAR offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
CAR on 7 more days rest than SEA
CAR defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Russell Wilson (SEA): -0.034 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 25

–

SEA 24

Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CAR

Jared Allen DE Out Back

A.J. Klein LB Out Concussion

Daryl Williams T Out Knee

Richie Brockel TE Doubtful Hamstring

Amini Silatolu G Questionable Ankle

Jerricho Cotchery WR Probable Ankle

Luke Kuechly LB Probable Concussion

SEA

Marcus Burley CB Out Hand

Frank Clark DE Doubtful Hamstring

Jordan Hill DT Doubtful Quadricep

Nick Moody LB Doubtful Ankle

Tye Smith CB Doubtful Hip

Bobby Wagner LB Questionable Pectoral

Marshawn Lynch RB Questionable Hamstring

Brock Coyle LB Questionable Knee

Demarcus Dobbs DE Questionable Shoulder

Michael Bennett DE Probable Not Injury Related

Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 27

–

SEA 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 05:41 FG SEA (5:41) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CAR 0 – SEA 3
Q2 13:34 TD CAR (13:34) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – SEA 3
Q2 08:02 TD SEA (8:02) 78-A.Bailey reported in as eligible. 24-M.Lynch left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – SEA 9
Q3 11:36 TD SEA (11:36) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-R.Lockette for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Wilson took bacwards pass from Lynch before throwing TD. CAR 7 – SEA 16
Q3 08:54 FG SEA (8:54) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CAR 7 – SEA 20
Q3 03:39 TD CAR (3:39) 79-C.Scott reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – SEA 20
Q4 11:51 FG SEA (11:51) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. CAR 14 – SEA 23
Q4 03:58 TD CAR (3:58) 79-C.Scott reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – SEA 23
Q4 00:36 TD CAR (:36) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep right to 88-G.Olsen for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 26 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(14:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to CAR 34, Center-49-C.Gresham, out of bounds.
Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(12:07) 8-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to SEA 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for 10 yards (55-D.Mayo).
Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(9:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to CAR 17, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

(5:41) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 59%

(5:13) 8-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to SEA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 11 for no gain (33-T.Boston). PENALTY on SEA-83-R.Lockette, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 11.
Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 92

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(2:49) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to CAR 41, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 37

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 58%

(:58) 79-C.Scott reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep right to 88-G.Olsen (29-E.Thomas).
Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 57%

(:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to CAR 15, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 72

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP

p(convert) 60%

(13:35) 8-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 10 yards (42-C.Jones; 33-T.Boston).
Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%

(8:54) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
Q3 SEA 4th & 8 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(2:46) 9-J.Ryan punts 60 yards to CAR 18, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 29 for 11 yards (82-L.Willson).
Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(1:08) 8-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to SEA 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for 13 yards (55-D.Mayo). PENALTY on SEA-32-C.Butler, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 26.
Q4 SEA 4th & 19 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 20% p(FG) 83%

(11:51) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54%

(10:13) 8-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to SEA 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 62

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP

p(convert) 58%

(8:21) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 20 for 7 yards (82-L.Willson).
Q4 SEA 4th & 18 at the 68 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(2:29) 9-J.Ryan punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback.