Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 8-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to SEA 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 31 for 13 yards (55-D.Mayo). PENALTY on SEA-32-C.Butler, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.90 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model