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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to CAR 17, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model