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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to CAR 34, Center-49-C.Gresham, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model