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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 8-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 10 yards (42-C.Jones; 33-T.Boston).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP