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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.61 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model