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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 20 for 7 yards (82-L.Willson).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP