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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.53 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model