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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.68 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model