Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- WAS defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Sam Bradford (PHI): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- WAS offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- WAS on 3 more days rest than PHI
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
PHI
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:28 FG WAS (7:28) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 0 – WAS 3
- Q1 00:56 FG WAS (:56) 3-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 0 – WAS 6
- Q2 05:27 TD WAS (5:27) 8-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 1, and recovers at PHI 2. 8-K.Cousins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 0 – WAS 12
- Q3 12:03 TD PHI (12:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass deep middle to 14-R.Cooper for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – WAS 13
- Q3 08:25 TD PHI (8:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 87-B.Celek for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 12 – WAS 13
- Q3 03:54 FG WAS (3:54) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 13 – WAS 16
- Q4 14:49 TD PHI (14:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass deep middle to 19-M.Austin for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – WAS 16
- Q4 00:31 TD WAS (:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 88-P.Garcon for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – WAS 22
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(7:28) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 18 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(6:17) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 47, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 41 for -6 yards (21-J.Couplin).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%
(:56) 3-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%
(14:53) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 2, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-38-E.Biggers.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(13:19) 5-T.Way punts 63 yards to PHI 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-19-R.Ross.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:00) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 27, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder. PENALTY on PHI-13-J.Huff, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 27.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:30) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to PHI 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at WAS 30 for 45 yards (53-J.Jeffcoat).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%
(:02) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 69%
(10:01) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to PHI 29, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles. PENALTY on WAS-47-Q.Dunbar, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 29.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%
(3:54) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:09) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to WAS 28, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 36 for 8 yards (47-T.Burton, 27-M.Jenkins).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 11 at the 35Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 58%
(11:39) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%
(8:42) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:41) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to 50, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 31%
(6:15) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback. PENALTY on WAS-26-B.Breeland, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 20.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 16 at the 86 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 26%
(:10) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short left to 81-J.Matthews to PHI 26 for 12 yards. Lateral to 17-N.Agholor to PHI 33 for 7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by WAS-93-T.Murphy at PHI 30. 93-T.Murphy to PHI 30 for no gain (43-D.Sproles).