Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 66

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(2:30) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to PHI 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at WAS 30 for 45 yards (53-J.Jeffcoat).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.20 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model