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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to WAS 28, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 36 for 8 yards (47-T.Burton, 27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model