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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model