Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 86

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short left to 81-J.Matthews to PHI 26 for 12 yards. Lateral to 17-N.Agholor to PHI 33 for 7 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by WAS-93-T.Murphy at PHI 30. 93-T.Murphy to PHI 30 for no gain (43-D.Sproles).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.06 EP
74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -1.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.93 EP