4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth +0.82 EP
KICK +2.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP