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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 2, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-38-E.Biggers.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.11 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model