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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.05 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model