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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 15

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model