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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 13:00 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

HOU
28.2%
ATL
71.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.268 vs Ryan Mallett (HOU) -0.045 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
ATL 28
Projected margin: ATL by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

HOU

Lonnie Ballentine S Out Knee
Akeem Dent LB Out Hamstring
Jonathan Grimes RB Out Knee
Duane Brown T Questionable Hand
Arian Foster RB Questionable Groin
Brandon Brooks G Probable Ankle
Eddie Pleasant S Probable Thigh
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Probable Calf
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Shoulder
Johnathan Joseph CB Probable Hip
Ryan Mallett QB Probable Chest
Derek Newton T Probable Ankle

ATL

Tevin Coleman RB Out Ribs
Jacob Tamme TE Out Concussion
Ricardo Allen S Out Knee
Devin Hester WR Out Toe
Devonta Freeman RB Probable Toe
Julio Jones WR Probable Toe
Brooks Reed LB Probable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 21
–
ATL 48

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:38 TD ATL (8:38) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – ATL 6
  • Q2 14:45 TD ATL (14:45) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – ATL 13
  • Q2 12:34 TD ATL (12:34) (Shotgun) 23-A.Foster right end to HOU 27 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by ATL-21-D.Trufant at HOU 24. 21-D.Trufant for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – ATL 20
  • Q2 03:15 TD ATL (3:15) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 85-L.Hankerson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – ATL 27
  • Q3 10:55 TD ATL (10:55) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – ATL 34
  • Q3 03:02 TD ATL (3:02) (Shotgun) 33-T.Ward left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – ATL 41
  • Q4 14:28 TD HOU (14:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – ATL 42
  • Q4 09:14 TD HOU (9:14) 22-C.Polk right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – ATL 42
  • Q4 03:08 TD HOU (3:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 18-C.Shorts for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – ATL 42
  • Q4 00:01 TD ATL (:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 18-C.Shorts to ATL 16 for 1 yard (53-A.Bradford). FUMBLES (53-A.Bradford), RECOVERED by ATL-54-N.Stupar at ATL 16. 54-N.Stupar for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-18-C.Shorts was injured during the play. He is Out. HOU 21 – ATL 48

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to HOU 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-C.Shorts to HOU 30 for 7 yards (54-N.Stupar).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 41%

    (10:24) 24-D.Freeman right end to HOU 44 for 1 yard (75-V.Wilfork).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to ATL 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to ATL 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-E.Weems to ATL 34 for 11 yards (51-J.Simon; 46-J.Weeks).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 18 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:49) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to HOU 26, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts. PENALTY on ATL-54-N.Stupar, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:42) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to ATL 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 54%

    (2:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to HOU 2, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-22-D.Southward.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 66%

    (:17) 8-N.Novak 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 73%

    (12:49) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass incomplete short right to 23-A.Foster.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (9:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-E.Weems to ATL 30 for 18 yards (59-W.Mercilus; 53-M.Bullough).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to HOU 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-C.Shorts pushed ob at HOU 25 for no gain (42-P.DiMarco).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-C.Shorts ran ob at HOU 26 for 16 yards (42-P.DiMarco). PENALTY on ATL-47-J.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26. Penalty on ATL-54-N.Stupar, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to HOU 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-C.Shorts ran ob at HOU 46 for 17 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 17 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 18-C.Shorts to ATL 16 for 1 yard (53-A.Bradford). FUMBLES (53-A.Bradford), RECOVERED by ATL-54-N.Stupar at ATL 16. 54-N.Stupar for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-18-C.Shorts was injured during the play. He is Out.