Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 65

Houston Texans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(6:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to ATL 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.63 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model