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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 42 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to HOU 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-C.Shorts pushed ob at HOU 25 for no gain (42-P.DiMarco).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model