Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to HOU 26, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts. PENALTY on ATL-54-N.Stupar, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.56 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model