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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to ATL 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP