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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 28 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to HOU 2, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-22-D.Southward.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.53 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP